Posted by
Cary Wesberry on Sunday, August 10, 2008 5:25:59 PM
President Bush lost the argument at the Nato summit, which marked a victory for Vladimir Putin
The clash between Georgia and Russia would have exploded anyway, in some form, if Nato decided to press ahead with offering Georgia a start on the road to membership, which could have come at its meeting at the end of the year.
The eruption on Friday – and the apparent miscalculations by Georgia and the US – should not deter Nato from taking that step soon.
But of course, it will put off many Nato members. They will consider how, if Georgia had already been a member, they would have been bound to defend it. Germany will now win more support for its argument, which dominated the Nato summit in the spring, that it would be wrong to offer membership for fear of provoking Russia and while its territory remains in dispute. Alarm at this near-war on Europe's borders will easily persuade more governments of the need for caution.
That would be wrong. It would tell Russia that it had an effective veto over who joined Nato. It would discourage the pro-American and pro-European spirit of Mikheil Saakashvili, elected overwhelmingly in 2004, partly for those sentiments. And it might even make it harder to agree the deployment of international peacemakers in South Ossetia – one of the better possible resolutions of this clash – by showing that the US and Europe were indifferent to Georgia's case.
Both sides now have incentives to step back. It appears as if there have been serious miscalculations, although more so on the Georgian side. Given the close contact with the Washington that might be extended to the US as well.
Mr Saakashvili may have deluded himself that four years of US help in equipping his armed forces really enabled them to make a quick dash for their prize. In taking advantage of the distraction of the Olympics, he looks sneaky, and so jeopardises his claim to the moral high ground, always his strongest point.
But Russia, in the drama of its move inside internationally-recognised Georgian sovereign borders, has escalated the dispute to a level that demands a formal response. At the very least, it has sacrificed prospects for the defence pact with Europe which it has mooted.
The Nato summit in Bucharest in April was an astonishing affair, by the dry standards of its predecessors. It was a blunt clash of philosophies about the future of Europe. On one side was President Bush, making one of the best speeches of his tenure, about the value of bringing Georgia and Ukraine into Nato, as an assertion of principles held in common. On the other was Angela Merkel, Germany's Chancellor, laying out all the reasons why this should be postponed, perhaps forever, even at the cost of undermining the pro-Western camp in Georgia. (It was a particularly bad performance by Gordon Brown, who was almost invisible).
Mr Bush didn't win; Merkel did. But one important concession was made – the promise of membership at some point, although without dates. Of course, the present clash with Russia makes it important that the question of South Ossetia begins to be resolved, by exploring in more detail the offers of autonomy which Mr Saakashvili has offered it, and whether a force with an international mandate might replace the Russian force which has now lost any claim to be neutral. But there are precedents (Turkey and Greece) for including members within the alliance who have failed to resolve territorial questions.
One of the uses of Nato is to draw a line between countries which share the same principles and those which do not. Georgia has indicated which side it is on. That is worth respecting, and rewarding. It would be giving in to Russian bullying to believe that the cost of membership is a war.
More excellent reporting from the London Sunday Times, this time from Bronwen Maddox. Georgia should absolutely be allowed to join NATO. Sending the message that joining NATO means invasion by Russia is beyond unacceptable. Russia should have never been allowed to start this invasion.
Based upon a recent analysis from Ralph Peters, it was not Georgia who attempted to use the Olympics opening in Beijing as media cover for this war, but Russia. It was Russia who encouraged Ossetia and Abkhazia under the ruse of independence to break away from Georgia. The entire invasion is a construct of Moscow in an outright grab of territory, energy routes, and power. The very fact of Russia continuing the invasion well past Ossetia and Abkhazia shows their intent. Russia will never allow the provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to be independent. Putin has already hinted that these two provinces will be "subsumed" into Russia... for their own protection of course.
As far as the confict over Georgia's NATO membership, the argument presented by Merkel of Germany is as backwards as it gets. If Georgia had already been a member of NATO, this invasion would not have taken place. It would be Russia who feared military backlash for their actions, and they would not have attacked. Russia knows just as well as I do that it is unable to stand-up to the military power in NATO. What's more, if Germany is going to dominate NATO then Germany might be better suited to form another historic alliance with Russia instead of manipulating NATO in favor of Russian military domination. At least it would be clear to everyone which side they are on. Why in God's name Germany of all countries is allowed to dominate a NATO summit is beyond me. Never let it be said that President Bush did not stand up to Merkel, it was not he but other members of NATO who fell for Merkel's ridiculous arguments against allowing Georgia to become a member.
Regardless of Merkel's typically German bullying at the NATO summit described above, we did win the promise of Georgia's membership; but without a date set. It is time to fulfill that promise and ignore the protestations of of a country like Germany who doesn't even allow its own soldiers to fire their weapons in Afghanistan. There is no reason to entertain arguments from such a silly country. In fact, maybe we could trade Germany for Georgia in NATO.